概率论沉思录 （英文版） 【正版书籍】 阿里云 kindle 下载 pdf chm 百度云 azw3 umd

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》将概率和统计推断融合在一起，用新的观点生动地描述了概率论在物理学、数学、经济学、化学和生物学等领域中的广泛应用，尤其是它阐述了贝叶斯理论的丰富应用，弥补了其他概率和统计教材的不足。全书分为两大部分。第一部分包括10章内容，讲解抽样理论、假设检验、参数估计等概率论的原理及其初等应用；第二部分包括12章内容，讲解概率论的高级应用，如在物理测量、通信理论中的应用。《概率论沉思录(英文版)》还附有大量习题，内容全面，体例完整。

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》内容不局限于某一特定领域，适合涉及数据分析的各领域工作者阅读，也可作为高年级本科生和研究生相关课程的教材。

PartⅠPrinciplesandelementaryapplications

Plausiblereasoning

.Deductiveandplausiblereasoning

.2Analogieswithslcaltheories

.3Thethinkingcomputer

.4Introducingtherobot

.5Booleanalgebra

.6Adequatesetsofoperations

.7Thebasicdesiderata

.8Comments

.8.Commonlanguagevs.formallogic

.8.2Nitpicking

2Thequantitativerules

2.Theproductrule

2.2Thesumrule

2.3Qualitativeproperties

2.4Numericalvalues

2.5Notationandfinite-setspolicy

2.6Comments

2.6.Suectlvevs.oectlve

2.6.2G/3delstheorem

2.6.3Venndiagrams

2.6.4TheKolmogorovaxioms

3Elementarysamplingtheory

3.Samplingwithoutreplacement

3.2Logicvs.propensity

3.3Reasoningfromlesspreciseinformation

3.4Expectations

3.5Otherformsandextensions

3.6Probabilityasamathematicaltool

3.7Thebinomialdistribution

3.8Samplingwithreplacement

3.8.Digression asermononrealityvs.models

3.9Correctionforcorrelations

3.0Simplification

3.Comments

3.

E.T.Jaynes（922—998）已故数学家和物理学家。生前曾任华盛顿大学圣路易斯分校和斯坦福大学教授。他因为提出了热动力学的大熵原理（957年）和量子光学的Jaynes-Cummings／模型（963年）而闻名于世。此后的几十年，他一直在探求将概率和统计推断作为整个科学的逻辑基础这一重大课题，其成果和心得最终凝结为本书。

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The writer has learned from much experience that this primary emphasis on the logic of the problem, rather than the mathematics, is necessary in the early stages. For modern students, the mathematics is the easy part; once a problem has been reduced to a definite mathematical exercise, most students can solve it effortlessly and extend it endlessly, without further help from any book or teacher. It is in the conceptual matters (how to make the initial connection between the real-world problem and the abstract mathematics) that they are perplexed and unsure how to proceed.

Good mathematicians see analogies between theorems; great mathematicians see analogies between analogies.

How can we build a mathematical model of human common sense?

How could we build a machine which would carry out useful plausible reasoning, following clearly defined priciples expressing an idealized common sense?

Of course, on publishing a new theorem, the mathematician will try very hard to invent an argument which uses only the first kind; but the reasoning process which led to the theorem in the first place almost always involves one of the weaker forms (based, for example, on following up conjectures suggested by analogies). The same idea is expressed in a remark of S. Banach (quoted by S. Ulam, 1957):

Good mathematicians see analogies between theorems; great mathematicians see analogies between analogies.

Many people are fond of saying, ‘They will never make a machine to replace the human mind – it does many things which no machine could ever do.’ A beautiful answer to this was given by J. von Neumann in a talk on computers given in Princeton in 1948, which the writer was privileged to attend. In reply to the canonical question from the audience (‘But of course, a mere machine can’t really think, can it?’), he said:

You insist that there is something a machine cannot do. If you will tell me precisely what it is that a machine cannot do, then I can always make a machine which will do just that!

编辑推荐

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》将概率和统计推断融合在一起，用新的观点生动地描述了概率论在物理学、数学、经济学、化学和生物学等领域中的广泛应用，尤其是它阐述了贝叶斯理论的丰富应用，弥补了其他概率和统计教材的不足。全书分为两大部分。部分包括0章内容，讲解抽样理论、假设检验、参数估计等概率论的原理及其初等应用 第二部分包括2章内容，讲解概率论的应用，如在物理测量、通信理论中的应用。《概率论沉思录(英文版)》还附有大量习题，内容全面，体例完整。《概率论沉思录(英文版)》内容不局限于某一特定领域，适合涉及数据分析的各领域工作者阅读，也可作为高年级本科生和研究生相关课程的教材。

书籍介绍

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》将概率和统计推断融合在一起，用新的观点生动地描述了概率论在物理学、数学、经济学、化学和生物学等领域中的广泛应用，尤其是它阐述了贝叶斯理论的丰富应用，弥补了其他概率和统计教材的不足。全书分为两大部分。第一部分包括10章内容，讲解抽样理论、假设检验、参数估计等概率论的原理及其初等应用；第二部分包括12章内容，讲解概率论的高级应用，如在物理测量、通信理论中的应用。《概率论沉思录(英文版)》还附有大量习题，内容全面，体例完整。

《概率论沉思录(英文版)》内容不局限于某一特定领域，适合涉及数据分析的各领域工作者阅读，也可作为高年级本科生和研究生相关课程的教材。